Cockney Suffolk

Cockney Suffolk

THE SUFFOLK SMALL BUSINESS PROJECT

Monchers™ is a Trademark of The Greenways Partnership Limited, a company incorporated in England, Reg Number 2825001. Registered office; 6 Greenways Close, Ipswich, Suffolk IP1 3RB, United Kingdom. UK Data Protection Registration Number Z7277556.

Introduction

The chance of this scenario actually happening is seen by many small businesses in Suffolk as quite real. It is a possibility that is met with both anticipation and dismay. There are those in Suffolk who are currently working to bring it about, and there are those in Suffolk who are currently striving to ensure that it does not come to pass. In this scenario, much of the traditional character of Suffolk is either lost or changed as the county becomes engulfed by inward migration. The newcomers are likely to bring a great deal of wealth to their new homes, which manages to propel the small business sector onto a path of fast growth. As we shall see, the changes to the nature of the Suffolk character and to the Suffolk economy are not without their costs. By 2020, many will question whether the cost of this scenario is one that they are willing to pay.

Narrative

At the turn of the century, it was public policy in Suffolk to attract the inward migration of large employers to the county. This policy worked very well, as a number of overseas companies established their European Head Offices in the county, and as a number of UK businesses relocated their central administration centres to the county. The trade wars with the Far East and the Indian Sub-Continent of 2007-08 caused many UK companies to recall their offshore centres to the UK. The relatively low cost of land and the close proximity of London, led Suffolk to be considered the ideal location for returning central administration centres.

This trend had an immediate and beneficial effect upon the local small business community. Many of the inwardly locating businesses operated a system of local preference in their purchasing, which gave a significant boost to local businesses. The sums of additional purchasing power that were pumped into the local economy were sufficient for the local SME sector to achieve a take-off effect onto the next level of operation. In turn, this stimulated the development of the Creative Class in the county through the links between the small business sector on the University of Suffolk.

The establishment of the University of Suffolk was pivotal to the later development of the small business sector in Suffolk. Whereas many had original forebodings about the effectiveness of the University as an institution, by 2009, the doubters had been won round. A combination of seed funding from newly located businesses, and funding originating in the small business community itself, forced the University to lift its performance to a world class level. Many of the original staff were replaced by 2009, as business became more insistent that the University achieved its potential, and as businesses became less tolerant of staff who under-achieved. In return, the business community embraced the performing staff, who were as likely to be found in the private sector as in their teaching roles as time wore on.

This had the effect of changing the social composition of Suffolk. With the campus in Ipswich as the epi-centre, the population of the county became more urbane, more cosmopolitan, and more bohemian. By 2015, the Bohemian class in Ipswich crossed the key threshold of 25% to trigger something of cultural revolution within the town. Within two years, Ipswich had become one of the hippest places in Europe, and was ready to ride the wave of popularity that accompanied the “European Dream” of 2020 and beyond. The “Backwoods Festival” of 2017 was something of a precursor of the cultural changes to come, and was an indicator of how far things had changed by 2017. Surprisingly, the festival - a gathering of artists, poets, musicians, and dancers - was almost entirely funded by private sector sponsorship, much from the small business sector. This was very much an indicator of how far the Creative Class had taken hold within the county.

Of course, theses were not the only changes to the social composition of Suffolk during the period. Two other groups were starting to assert their predominance. The improved transport links to London assisted the development of Suffolk as commuter location. Originally locating along the axis of the main rail lines within the county, the commuters - also known as “High Income Families” and “Suburban-Semis” in demographic terms - had moved away from the main railheads by 2020, and were more evenly distributed amongst the general population of the county. The second group of incomers were those retiring from London and the South East. For many years, the South Coast of England had been the main retirement destination of this group. However, the impact of global warming, just starting to become discernible by 2020, made places such as Dorset just a little too uncomfortable and it made places such as the East Coast just a little more temperate. Those retiring followed the weather, and the East Coast started to gain ascendancy over the South Coast as the retirement spot in England.

These three trends - the development of a Creative Class, the influx of commuters, and the influx of people retiring to Suffolk - had the effect of crowding out the Country Dwellers who lived in Suffolk. Indeed, many saw this process as one of London swamping the countryside. The conversion of the Countryside Alliance from a pressure group to a formal political party in 2012 gave voice to these divisions within society. However, as the economy was no longer dominated by the rural sector, the financial weight that under-pinned the predominance of the Country Dwellers as a political force was no longer there. This is not to say that they were unimportant politically. However, their relative political importance had significantly declined by 2020.

In many ways, this was a reflection of the wider integration of Suffolk into the national and international economy. Two trends enhanced this integration. First, the developments of transport links between Suffolk and the wider world. The expansion of Stansted Airport facilitated these links. As the air network across Europe developed, and as local businesses started to use Amsterdam as their hub for inter-continental flights, so it became much more usual for small businesses in Suffolk to have a truly international customer base. Secondly, the influx of large businesses into Suffolk gave weight to the voice calling for a fully digitised infrastructure. By 2010, this had been created, which allowed small businesses in Suffolk to service a truly global market. Both of these trends were exploited fully by local SMEs in the decade beyond.

It would be wrong, however, to see Suffolk purely in terms of a Hi-Tech economy. As farming became less viable commercially, many farmers seized the opportunity to put their land to alternative use. Much of that use was based in the leisure sector. Traditionally, the leisure sector is categorised as being one in which there are a multitude of low-productivity, low value added, jobs. In the case of Suffolk, the story was different. Even at the start of the twenty first century, there was an acute shortage of staff for low-grade minimum wage work. The establishment of the University of Suffolk did alleviate this position on a temporary basis, but the latent student workforce were soon absorbed into the new leisure sector. The new leisure sector (as opposed to the old one, the one characterised by low value added work) was devoted to exploiting the opportunities arising from the development of the Dream Society. By 2012, people were very focussed on finding meaning to their lives, and they were prepared to pay a premium price to do so. As a response to this demand, we saw the establishment of a number of alternative communities within Suffolk, devoted to helping people find the meaning of their lives. As land came out of farming, it was abundantly available for this purpose.

It is unfortunate that the land was not made available for residential housing. The growth in the demand for housing, dominated by the influx of new families from other areas in the UK and from overseas, always ran ahead of the growth of the supply of housing. This, in combination with the growing prosperity of the county, led to house prices growing in Suffolk well in excess of house price inflation in the UK generally. It resulted in an increase in overcrowded dwellings in Suffolk and helped to put a sharp point to the antithesis between the newcomers and those originally from Suffolk. It added a bitter edge to politics in Suffolk. Although the authorities attempted a number of novel solutions to the housing crisis, they simply lacked the resources to produce an effective solution to the problem. By 2020, this remains the single most divisive issue faced within the county.

In many ways, it helps to define Cockney Suffolk. In the London of old, there were great disparities of wealth. Fortunes were made and fortunes were lost. The old had to give way to the new, and the new classes did not hesitate to flaunt in triumph their newfound place in the world. Thos who lost out in the changed arrangements simmered in their resentment of the newcomers. Just as this might describe the London of Dickens, it also describes the Suffolk of 2020 - it has finally experienced the Industrial Revolution.

Milestones

If this scenario were to come to pass, what would the key milestones be? We feel that there are five key milestones that need to be looked for:

1. Large companies - that current policies of attracting inward investment into Suffolk works, and that a significant number of inward investors locate offices within the county. As this happens, the key functions to the company relocate into Suffolk, acting as a stimulus to the local small business sector.

2. University of Suffolk - this initiative succeeds in becoming a world centre of excellence that attracts high quality students and high quality teaching staff. The University fully integrates with the local business community, who, in turn, give the University their full support in terms of time and money.

3. Net gain of talent - good employments prospects and a world class University manage to retain talent within the Suffolk economy and attracts talent from other regions in the UK and from other countries around the world.

4. Infrastructure - improved transport links to areas outside of Suffolk are combined with good ICT roll-out in parts of the Suffolk economy. These links are instrumental in the development of first class businesses.

5. Social composition - Suffolk continues to be an attractive place for commuters to relocate and for seniors to retire to. This crowds out the Country Dwellers, and there are great stresses within the social composition of Suffolk. However, this fails to lessen the appeal of the county as a destination in which to locate.

These are empirical propositions. We can measure the extent to which they are, or are not, actually happening. Evidence that suggests that they are happening may also suggest that elements of this scenario will be present in the future.

Of course, this is not to say that we would find this future desirable. If we did, then we could take steps to see that it comes to pass. If we find it undesirable, then we could take steps to ensure that it didn’t come to pass. The key point is that the future is in our hands. It is up to us to decide what we are to make of it.

This section was produced with assistance from Victoria Freestone on secondment from the European Futures Observatory.

THE EUROPEAN

FUTURES

OBSERVATORY