Introducing The Scenarios

THE SUFFOLK SMALL BUSINESS PROJECT

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We have established that the two critical uncertainties are the extent to which Suffolk becomes a suburb of London, and the degree to which Suffolk reaches critical mass to undertake organic - as opposed to dependent - economic growth. From this, we can derive a Futurescape of four scenarios:

1. A rural Suffolk with growth dependent upon other areas. This is a future that is much the same as it is today. We have called this scenario “Plus ça change”.

2. A rural Suffolk with an organically growing economy. This is a future where Suffolk becomes an economic dynamo on its own terms. We have called this scenario “The Suffolk Treasure House”.

3. Suffolk as a suburb of London with growth dependent upon other areas. This is a future where Suffolk becomes absorbed into a Greater London. We have called this scenario “The London Playground”.

4. Suffolk as a suburb of London with an organically growing economy. This is a future where Suffolk becomes a thriving area, but as part of a Greater London. We have called this scenario “Cockney Suffolk”.

Each of these points in the Futurescape has something to offer the present. However, the various constituencies in the present may have distinct preferences for the future that they prefer.

 

The next step in the exercise is to identify the factors upon which the uncertainties would play. The 2004 SME Survey, the evidence of the public focus groups, along with the evidence collected from a number of private briefings led us to identify ten key factors upon which the uncertainties would play. These are:

1. Would large companies locating in Suffolk stimulate a Creative Class?

2. Would inward investment into Suffolk would stimulate an accelerator effect on the Suffolk economy?

3. Would the University of Suffolk lead to the establishment of a Creative Class within the county?

4. Would the University of Suffolk change the social composition of the county?

5. Would improved transport links to London have an impact on the Futurescape?

6. Would environmental change have an impact on the Futurescape?

7. Is Broadband rolled out across the county to become widely accessible?

8. Does farming diversify?

9. Are the Country Dwellers crowded out by an inwardly migrating population?

10. Will there be a reversion to tied accommodation as a means of solving a housing shortage?

In many ways, these factors are the issues that the Suffolk small business community feels are likely to be the key issues affecting the future. Of course, it is the case that other communities will have a different set of factors. However, for the purposes of this study, these are the factors that we shall concentrate upon.

 

The next step in the process of scenario building is to generate a cross impact matrix that examines the impact of each of the key factors within the confines of each scenario. The cross impact matrix is as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The cross impact matrix serves as an aide memoire to allow us to generate a snapshot of the Futurescape in each of our scenarios. We have described each of the scenarios in separate pages. Use the links to access the description of each scenario.

 

The scenarios are, by definition, descriptions of a set of possible futures. Elements of all of the scenarios might come to pass in the actual future. Quite equally, none of the elements in the scenarios might come to pass in the actual future. The scenarios are not forecasts, they are indicators of our best estimates of what the key elements in the future might be and how those elements might play out.

 

Although our work in creating the scenarios is now complete, there are a number of measures that can be taken to drive the study forward. Outside the scope of this study is an exercise in “back-casting” (the opposite to forecasting) to track each of the scenarios back from 2020 to today. The purpose of this exercise would be to discern a number of critical milestones between now and the future. This has the benefit of mapping the future in order that we can discern which possible future is becoming the actual future. As a company, we have committed to undertaking a further survey of the Suffolk lifestyle tribes in 2007 - assuming that the data is available - to map the changing population in Suffolk. Other milestones in the path to the future are available to our clients.

 

The back-casting exercise would also inform the conversation about preferred futures. This would be of assistance to policy makers within both the Public Sector and the Private Sector. The future is not a determined entity, and our actions today will impact on the shape of the future the we experience. To this extent, we have a choice over the preferred futures in which we live. The milestones to the future would enable us to examine the effectiveness of policy in shaping the future.

 

However, we believe that the greatest impact of this study will be to inform us about how to structure small businesses so that they may be prepared for the future. To this end, we have developed a Case Study of one of our clients, Talk 24 Assist, to demonstrate how the results of this study can be used to great effect. Commercial success does not occur by accident. It is the result of careful planning and forethought, both of which have been delivered by this project.

 

The future that we would most prefer is the Suffolk Treasure House - a Suffolk that retains its rural charm, and yet which has the capacity to compete in a global economy. This, indeed, would be a golden future. Our challenge to the Suffolk small business community is to join us in making it happen.

 

This section was produced with assistance from Victoria Freestone on secondment from the European Futures Observatory.

THE EUROPEAN

FUTURES

OBSERVATORY