Plus ça change

Plus ça change

THE SUFFOLK SMALL BUSINESS PROJECT

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Introduction

The essence of this scenario is that nothing key changes to the structure of the Suffolk small business community in the years to 2020. This scenario is almost a base-line scenario, outlining what might come to pass if there are no structural changes to the SME sector within the economy out to 2020. Of course, there will be changes to the vehicles by which small business delivers its goods and services. We can expect the IT revolution to change the ways in which we live our lives, the communications revolution will change the gadgets by which we communicate and may even introduce new mediums of communication to us. However, the point is that, although the ephemeral aspects of our lives may change, the main pulse of life for Suffolk small businesses will remain as unchanged as they have for the past seventy five years.

Narrative

Suffolk still will be a predominantly rural economy, characterised by small town and suburban lifestyles. At the turn of the century, it had been hoped that the encouragement of large companies within the county would stimulate growth in the SME sector. By and large, that hasn’t happened. Whilst some inward investment has stimulated SMEs in a number of very localised areas, it hasn’t introduced sufficient money into the economy to have a major impact. Indeed, one of the political issues of the day is that vast sums are spent on encouraging large companies to locate in Suffolk, but with such scant effect. Many feel that the money would have been better spent directly within the local economy rather than being sucked out of Suffolk and remitted to the head office of the inward investors.

Some had hoped that the establishment of a University of Suffolk would galvanise the economy. Sadly, this did not happen. The University never managed to establish itself within the academic community as a beacon of excellence, and the brightest pupils in Suffolk continued to go to study outside of the county. All in all, the brain drain that crippled the Suffolk economy in the twentieth century continued well into the twenty first century. Suffolk in general, and Ipswich in particular, never quite managed to establish itself as a centre of creative excellence. Of course, the death knell was sounded to the policy of establishing a centre of creative excellence in 2012. It was in that year that the take-over of BT by the US telecoms conglomerate Engulf & Devour led to the closure of the research facility at Martlesham Heath. For many years, the pretensions to a Hi-Tech sector in Suffolk had been dependent upon a single player, and the closure of the facility exposed the lack of substance behind the hyperbole surrounding the Ip-City initiative.

Of course, with the closure of the research facility at Martlesham Heath, the triple problems of low Broadband penetration, poor transport links, and a degraded environment further hampered the Suffolk small business sector. For years, the public agencies had been campaigning for better Broadband roll-out within Suffolk. Their pleas fell upon deaf ears. A number of innovative solutions had been attempted to enhance rural communications, but none of hem had managed to capture the imagination of the public. Low take-up rates led to high overheads, resulting in costly Broadband facilities. The closure of the BT research facility at Martlesham Heath became a symbol of the relative backwardness of the communications infrastructure in Suffolk.

This impression was further highlighted by the continued poor traffic infrastructure within the county. The roads within Suffolk were seen as slow and dangerous. The response of Suffolk County Council by imposing even more speed restrictions on the roads was perceived as making the Suffolk roads ever more slow and dangerous. The combined prospect of traffic congestion when coming into Suffolk, and slow driving conditions within the county started to reverse the trend of Suffolk becoming a weekend destination. This trend was further enhanced by conditions on the railways. By the end of the twentieth century, the commuter line to London was at capacity. With no significant investment in the passenger rail-link, this situation had deteriorated further our to 2020. As travel times to London were increasing, as the experience of disruption on the line increased, Suffolk as a commuting prospect had become less attractive. This retarded the inflow of commuters relocating to the county from what it otherwise would have been.

The industrial revolution passed Suffolk by in the nineteenth century. By and large, the information revolution of the twentieth century has passed Suffolk by. The composition of the SME sector in the county is still heavily influenced by the food production and food processing sectors. This had three key impacts in the years to 2020. First, as the agricultural sector is still land based, the county was still likely to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Second, without any great commercial pressure to change, the process diversification in farming had not significantly accelerated. And thirdly, without great expansive pressure from outside, the social composition of the county remain dominated by the Country Dwellers.

By 2020, the weather patterns experienced within the county had changed slightly, but significantly. Most worrying was the tendency towards more extreme and violent weather patterns. Whilst the rising sea levels have not yet had as great an impact as some had feared, the great storm of 2009 did lead to a significant encroachment of the sea into a number of areas of coastal farmland. The local populations felt very isolated and abandoned by the Government as the policy for sea defences was implemented. Whilst Civil Servants argued that a more diversified farming sector would have led to fewer losses being experienced, the local population was not impressed by what they felt as an uncaring attitude from Central Government. This translated into an upswell of political support for the Countryside Alliance, and was one of the defining moments that led to this loose grouping to become a formal political party.

The absence of significant inward investment and the abatement of the trend towards the greater relocation of commuters in Suffolk meant that the fears expressed by some about local populations being crowded out by newcomers did not materialise. This meant that Suffolk managed to retain much of its traditional charm. In more practical terms, it meant that the acute housing shortages that had been predicted did not come to pass either. Of course, there remained pockets of rural deprivation, but these pockets were much as they have been for decades.

All together, Suffolk remains a quaint place, a little backwater that has an aspect that time has forgotten about the county. It retains much of its rural charm. It is often said that Suffolk is a great place in which to live, which it is. It is also said that Suffolk is a hard place in which to do business. This aspect of life in Suffolk has not changed much since the turn of the century, which explains why it is that the small business sector in Suffolk is relatively underdeveloped.

Milestones

If this scenario were to come to pass, what would the key milestones be? We feel that there are five key milestones that need to be looked for:

1. Large companies - that there continues to be a very small number of large companies located in Suffolk, and that they are poorly integrated into the local small business community.

2. University of Suffolk - this initiative fails to become a world centre of excellence that attracts high quality students and high quality teaching staff.

3. Net loss of brainpower - poor employments prospects and a mediocre University fail in the net retention of brainpower within the Suffolk economy.

4. Infrastructure degradation - higher transport times within Suffolk and to areas outside of Suffolk combined with poor ICT roll-out in the Suffolk economy.

5. Social composition - Suffolk ceases to be an attractive place for commuters to relocate and for seniors to retire to.

These are empirical propositions. We can measure the extent to which they are, or are not, actually happening. Evidence that suggests that they are happening may also suggest that elements of this scenario will be present in the future.

Of course, this is not to say that we would find this future desirable. If we did, then we could take steps to see that it comes to pass. If we find it undesirable, then we could take steps to ensure that it didn’t come to pass. The key point is that the future is in our hands. It is up to us to decide what we are to make of it.

This section was produced with assistance from Victoria Freestone on secondment from the European Futures Observatory.

THE EUROPEAN

FUTURES

OBSERVATORY