Desirable Futures

THE SUFFOLK SMALL BUSINESS PROJECT

What is the desirable future for small business in Suffolk?

Our expression of the desirable future for small business in Suffolk is, in many ways, the product of our vision for small business in Suffolk. In the course of the project, we have corresponded with a number of agencies who have a vision of the future for small business in Suffolk. It is our purpose to outline some of those visions, as they are instrumental in considering some of the possible end states in the scenarios that we are to generate.

What we found striking was a sharp divide between the public sector and the private sector agencies. In general terms, the public sector agencies express a clear vision of the future, and tailor their policy to achieve that future. Behind this lies the view that the future can be moulded in proactive way, and as the result of policy. By way of contrast, the agencies in the private sector do not express a clear vision of the future. Of course, this could be due to the fact that they do not have one, but we believe that this is not the case. Instead, we favour the view that the agencies in the private sector display the implicit belief that the market will determine the future composition of the small business community, and that policy, whilst tinkering around the edges, will be unable to fundamentally affect the development of the small business community.

We feel that this is no the right place to attempt to discuss the validity of either view. However, we shall return to it when determining the critical uncertainties facing the Suffolk small business community. One great aspect of the scenario approach is to look at the consequences of an assumption being correct or incorrect. At this point, we wished to limit our consideration to a description of the desired end states rather than to appraise them.

One clear view from the public sector is that it is seen as desirable for Suffolk to have a Hi-Tech future. A number of policy initiatives from a number of agencies lay down the vision of a Hi-Tech cluster in Suffolk - particularly along the “Cambridge to Ipswich Hi-Tech Corridor”. Companies in this sector are seen as desirable because, it is felt, they will lead to the development of jobs that are high value-added, a key feature underpinning the future prosperity of the county.

Underneath this strata of small businesses would be a number of layers of companies that have a lesser value-added, and which would service the Hi-Tech sector. In order to encourage these companies, initiatives, such as the provision of managed workspace and the provision of soft finance, are undertaken in an attempt to kick-start these service companies. The service companies would be able to undertake service provision on an international level (Amsterdam is only 160 miles from Ipswich - about the same distance as Leeds). This has led to the view that, with a little policy encouragement, Suffolk could become a hub of activity at the European level.

To summarise, this vision of the future has the Suffolk small business community as a Hi-Tech cluster, with a full complement of ancillary businesses, that operate on a national and international stage. Many in the small business community share this vision of the future. It offers a future of high value-added business, coupled with a balanced and sustainable development of the Suffolk economy. It also holds Suffolk as developing organically, in it’s own right, as opposed to the development of Suffolk as a suburb of Greater London.

There is, however, a further vision of the small business sector in Suffolk. In this vision, the Suffolk small business community capitalises on the natural assets that is possesses - to develop as a tourist destination where visitors enjoy the natural beauty of the Suffolk countryside and coastline. In this vision, the small business sector would develop both the physical and human capital to become a leading destination for tourists. We have to say that few in the small business community share this vision. Our survey indicates that the lack of an adequate road infrastructure - which is unlikely to change much to 2020 - is seen as a major retardant to this vision. People just find it too difficult to get to Suffolk. Suffolk is outside of the main London-Oxford-Stratford triangle that attracts international visitors. However, initiatives such as “Snoasis” in Great Blakenham might place Suffolk as a tourist destination. We rather feel that there is a danger of the accessibility argument being used as a rationalization for another reason for rejecting this vision. We feel that the small business community does not share this vision because they do not want a low value-added economy - there simply aren’t the profits to be made in this vision.

There is a third, and final, vision for the small business community expounded by the public sector agencies. In this vision, the future of the Suffolk economy lies in attracting the UK subsidiaries of overseas (mainly US) companies. The small business community would service these branches through a mixture of high value-added and low-value added activities. Once again, there appears to be very little buy-in to this vision from the small business community. In recent years, the public agencies have managed to attract large overseas companies to locate in Suffolk. However, as soon as a down-turn occurred, the parent company simply closed the local operation. This strategic vulnerability to decisions that are made elsewhere has not been lost to the Suffolk small business community, who generally do not share the vision of inward investment.

Of the three main visions of the future, the Hi-Tech organic growth vision is the one that has received most support from the small business community. As we noted earlier, the private sector has not really generated many alternatives to this, which does create a vulnerability if the single desirable future does not come to pass. It is also the case that, by not developing a viable alternative, the private sector has abrogated leadership and responsibility for the development of a vision for the future for the small business community. It seems odd that the vision of the future for small business has been left in the hands of those who have limited experience of business, and even less experience of small business.

It is fair to say that there are a number of visions of the desired futures for the Suffolk small business community. The acceptance of these visions vary a great deal. However, what is striking is the poverty of vision expressed by the private sector agencies.

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