The Population Of Suffolk

Introduction

Suffolk is a rural county of eastern England, located about 60 miles north east of London. Traditionally, the county has been associated with the rural economy – in many ways, the Industrial Revolution didn’t come to Suffolk – and this has affected the composition of the population of the county.

The 2001 Census estimates the population of Suffolk to be in the region of 669,000 inhabitants. The average density of the county is 176 people per km², which compares against an average density of 379 people per km² for England. The average density for Essex (the southern neighbouring county to Ipswich) is 378 people per km², whilst the average density for London is 4,562 people per km², points to which we shall return later.

The largest town in the county - the county does not have a city, although there is an ancient cathedral at Bury-St-Edmunds – is Ipswich. The population of Ipswich was estimated as 117,000 in the 2001 Census, rather emphasizing the rural nature of land use within the remainder of the county.

A Snapshot Of The Population.

The 2001 Census provides us with a good snapshot of the composition of the population at a single point in time. It showed that about 60% of the population were of working age, whilst 61% of the population over 15 were economically active. Of those economically inactive, about two thirds were fully retired, and about one third were economically inactive for other reasons. These provide a latent pool of labour which could be drawn upon should the labour participation rate change.

Of the economically active, 13.5% were classed as self-employed. This would indicate a relatively low level of activity. However, we feel that these figures under-estimate the levels of small business activity. As the Chancellor of the Exchequer introduced tax incentives for the self employed to incorporate their businesses, we feel that many business owners would have moved from the “self-employed” category to the “employees-full time” category at the time of the survey. The Census indicated that 59.5% of the economically active were “employees full-time”, a figure that includes a good number of SME business owners who had incorporated their business.

The 2001 Census also indicated that 71.6% of the population of Suffolk were “Middle Class” (of professional, managerial, technical, and skilled occupations). This is significant in terms of the project because within this bland category lies one of the key issues facing the Suffolk economy today. We decided to look into this area further through an analysis of the lifestyle tribes within Suffolk (see our page on the 12 Tribes Of Suffolk), and found that this dynamic is one of the key issues that will determine the future of small business in Suffolk.

The Past

Before examining the future prospects for the population of Suffolk, it is important to review the immediate past – if only to see what trends are apparent. We decided to look as far back as we are looking forward. This fitted in well with the data, which was derived from the 1981 Census and the 2001 Census. We accept the possible inaccuracies of both sources as given, but take the view that these will tend to cancel each other out when using the data as a comparative base.

The most salient feature of the period 1981-2001 is the growth of the population within the county. During this period, the population of the county grew by 13%. For each year, there was, in addition to the organic growth in population, a net inflow of migrants into the county. Of these, 43.0% originated from the London Region, and 20.4% originated from the South Eastern Region. However, in this context, Essex is counted as part of the South Eastern Region, and there is evidence to suggest that much of the movement to Suffolk from the South Eastern Region (about 67% of the total movement) was of a distance of less than 10 miles.

It is at this point that the density statistics assume their significance. 16% of those moving to Suffolk did so to trade up their housing. This is a distinctly English phenomenon that needs to be explained for overseas readers. In England, during the period 1981-2001, the disparate inflation of house prices gave rise to a situation where those people living in London could sell their London accommodation, clear their mortgage finance, and buy a similar or larger house with the remaining funds from the sale of their London house. As Suffolk is only an hour away from London, the period 1981-2001 saw the growth of Suffolk as part of the London travel-to-work area.

As we said, 16% of those moving to Suffolk did so to trade up their housing. 13% moved to Suffolk for work reasons, including those who used the released equity from their London property to fund a business start-up. 9% moved to Suffolk to live in a better area, and 9% moved to Suffolk as part of their retirement. Over the long period, the attractiveness of Suffolk as a place to live and a place to retire has affected the composition of the population of Suffolk.

The traditional County Dweller lifestyle groups have not grown as fast as the Independent Elders, High Income Families, and Suburban Semis lifestyle groups. The Independent Elders, particularly their concentration in the Aldeburgh-Snape-Southwold triangle, represent the development of the Suffolk Coast as a retirement location, in the same way that Dorset is a retirement location. The High Income Families and Suburban Semis lifestyle groups represent a core of commuters coming to live in Suffolk. Their concentration along the main commuter railway lines to London (Manningtree-Ipswich-Stowmarket-Diss) indicates the development of Suffolk as part of the commuter heartland of Southern England.

The Future

The immediate future between 2000 and 2010 is for the population of Suffolk to continue to grow. During this period, the forecast is for the population to grow by 5%. We rather feel that this is likely to understate the growth of the population. The evidence for the 1990s indicates that the rate of inward migration has accelerated. If the growth rate of the population is accelerating, then forecasts based upon past growth rates will understate the growth prospects for the population.

Looking ahead to the longer term, there is nothing to suggest that this process will abate. Property in Suffolk still looks cheap in comparison with the property available in, say, Surrey or Sussex (part of the commuter heartland south of London). As long as this continues, and as long as the journey from Suffolk to London takes about the same time as the journey from Sussex to London, the pressure will be for those people moving out of London to do so into the northern commuter heartlands, which now includes Suffolk. There is evidence to suggest that Suffolk property prices are very highly correlated with London City bonuses, and that, as soon as City bonuses are announced, people start to look to move out of London to Suffolk.

If we are right, then, during the next twenty years, the change of the composition of the middle class within Suffolk will continue. We can easily foresee the further development of the Suffolk Coast as a retirement location, along with the expansion of the commuter belt outwards from the main rail links. This is likely to diminish the numerical importance of the Country Dwellers and to change the face of the county away from the rural perspective to become more suburban in outlook and presentation.

To our view, the key issue that will surface in the period 2000-2020 will be the relationship between Suffolk and London. How will the population of Suffolk interact with London? How will the migrants from London affect the nature of Suffolk? These critical uncertainties are the issues that we shall deal with in considering the key drivers for our scenarios.

The Population Of Suffolk

THE SUFFOLK SMALL BUSINESS PROJECT

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